☀️ Sha Tin Sunday: a Group 2 sprint and Purton everywhere

🏆 The feature: Race 7, the Premier Bowl, Group 2, 1200m (08:05 UK · 19:05 AEDT · 10:05 SAST)

Our early ratings have three close together:

• Crimson Flash (Andrea Atzeni, gate 2, Mark Newnham): 5 wins from 11 at 1200m. 5th last time, beaten 3 lengths. Early model: 19.1%.
  Crimson Flash · Early: 19.1% (model only) · Now: 🔒 members · updated 20:15 UK
• Ka Ying Attack (Matthew Poon, gate 8, David Hall): three wins in a row and up 7 points in the ratings, but still only 119lb. Early model: 16.6%.
  Ka Ying Attack · Early: 16.6% (model only) · Now: 🔒 members · updated 20:15 UK
• Sing Dragon (Matthew Chadwick, gate 1): drops 450m in trip with just 115lb, but 0 from 10 at 1200m. Early model: 16.3%.
  Sing Dragon · Early: 16.3% (model only) · Now: 🔒 members · updated 20:15 UK

Top weight Raging Blizzard (135lb) has won 6 of 24 at 1200m, but none of his 7 starts on this course.

⭐ Our strongest early rating: Seraph Gabriel, Race 4 (06:15 UK · 17:15 AEDT · 08:15 SAST)

Purton for David Eustace, 2nd last time out 11 days ago, now up to 2000m. Early model: 39.1%, the highest on the card. The catch: 0 from 6 in this class. Even at 39%, it goes wrong three times in five.

👀 Also worth a look

• Race 6, Lightness Of Music (Purton, 07:35 UK): won last time and 2 from 2 on this course. 33.5% early. Ka Ying Lightning is 2 from 2 at 1000m but drawn 14.
  Lightness Of Music · Early: 33.5% (model only) · Now: 🔒 members · updated 20:15 UK
  Ka Ying Lightning · Early: 13.3% (model only) · Now: 🔒 members · updated 20:15 UK
• Race 1 (free for everyone): Almighty Warrior (Purton) 34.3% early, from Jedi Spurs (David Hayes) 27.3%. Six of the eleven haven't run in Hong Kong yet, so we can only rate them on jockey, trainer and draw. The market will know more than we do.
  Almighty Warrior · Early: 34.3% (model only) · Now: 🔒 members · updated 20:15 UK
  Jedi Spurs · Early: 27.3% (model only) · Now: 🔒 members · updated 20:15 UK

🇦🇺 AUSSIE WATCH: Purton on 8 of our early Top Rated. James Cummings has two (Only U, R2; Speedy Power, R5), both ridden by Purton. Mark Newnham trains our Premier Bowl early Top Rated, Crimson Flash.

🇿🇦 SAFFA WATCH: Douglas Whyte has seven runners, none in our early top three.

How we rate (the honest bit)

These are early ratings, made before any odds, as at Thursday morning. Once the market opens they're ranked on a 50/50 blend of our model and the market, so the numbers will move, and they lock 4 minutes before each race. In testing, the market alone picked more winners than our model alone, and no version we tested made a profit. Every locked rating and every result is posted, wins and misses.

📲 Free Telegram for Race 1 and every result: hkracingmodel.com/go/telegram?src=site_preview

🏇 Full card, every race: 7 days free