Sha Tin · Monday 19 October 2026

Updated 07:03 HK · 00:03 UK · odds snapshot 07:03 HK · 00:03 UK · Add to calendar · What the tags mean

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Model ratings, not betting tips. Rankings appear early from form, update as odds and today’s results arrive, and lock 4 minutes before each race. A locked rating is never changed. In our 2025/26 test (854 races the model never saw) its top pick won 23% of races, favourites won 28%, and no tested version beat the market price. The test used final prices. Our ratings lock 4 minutes before the off, when the market is less sharp, so live results are expected to come in below the test. The forward record from 1 Oct 2026 is shown below and on the results page. Gap = model % minus market % — information only; in testing, backing horses the model rated above the market lost money. From 2026-10-06, Top rated / Threat / E/W top 3 rank on a 50/50 blend of model and market (rule blend_v1); earlier meetings were ranked on the model alone (c005_v1) and are unchanged.

R112:30 HK · 05:30 UKClass 5 · 1800m · Turf "C+3" · GoodLIVE13 runners · live model (includes today’s results)

Runners to note

Top rated · #1 Star Brose (Z Purton / D A Hayes, draw 8) Model 21.5% | Market 13.6% — last start 7th, 18 days ago · 0 wins from 6 at 1800m · 0 from 6 on this course
Threat · #4 Kingly Demeanor (H Y Yuen (-7) / A S Cruz, draw 5) Model 12.5% | Market 21.0% — last start 2nd, 12 days ago · 3 wins from 21 at 1800m · 2 from 13 on this course
E/W 3rd · #2 Golden Fortune (B Avdulla / K L Man, draw 3) — last start 1st, 12 days ago · 1 win from 3 at 1800m · 1 from 2 on this course

No	Horse	Model win %	Market %	Blend %	Model price	Odds	Mkt	Gap (pts)	Tags
1	STAR BROSE Z Purton · D A Hayes · draw 8 · 135lb · rtg 40	21.5%	13.6%	18.0%	4.7	6.0	2	+7.8	TOP RATEDE/W TOP 3
Placed top 3 in 2 of its last 5, without winning. 7th last time, beaten 3.2 lengths, 18 days ago. 0 wins from 6 at 1800m. 0 wins from 6 on this course. 1 win from 12 on Good. 1 win from 4 at this class.
4	KINGLY DEMEANOR H Y Yuen (-7) · A S Cruz · draw 5 · 133lb · rtg 38	12.5%	21.0%	17.1%	8.0	3.9	1	-8.4	THREATE/W TOP 3
Placed top 3 in 2 of its last 5, without winning. 2nd last time, beaten 1.5 lengths, 12 days ago. 3 wins from 21 at 1800m. 2 wins from 13 on this course. 3 wins from 22 on Good. 3 wins from 11 at this class.
2	GOLDEN FORTUNE B Avdulla · K L Man · draw 3 · 134lb · rtg 39	19.0%	10.8%	15.1%	5.3	7.6	5	+8.2	E/W TOP 3
1 win from its last 5 (3 top-3 finishes). Won last time out, 12 days ago. 1 win from 3 at 1800m. 1 win from 2 on this course. 0 wins from 5 on Good. 1 win from 6 at this class.
6	I EXCELLE C Y Ho · P C Ng · draw 2 · 130lb · rtg 35	15.7%	11.7%	14.3%	6.4	7.0	3	+4.0
Placed top 3 in 1 of its last 5, without winning. 3rd last time, beaten 1.8 lengths, 18 days ago. Up 200m in trip, 0 wins from 2 at 1800m. 0 wins from 3 on Good. 0 wins from 3 at this class. Jockey and trainer have won 17 of 133 together.
8	FORTUNE KINGO C L Chau (-2) · D J Whyte · draw 11 · 127lb · rtg 32	5.8%	11.2%	8.5%	17.3	7.3	4	-5.4
Placed top 3 in 2 of its last 5, without winning. 2nd last time, beaten 1.8 lengths, 18 days ago. Up 200m in trip, 0 wins from 4 at 1800m. 0 wins from 3 on this course. 0 wins from 5 on Good. 0 wins from 4 at this class.
13	PERFECT PAIRING A Atzeni · J Size · draw 9 · 115lb · rtg 20	3.9%	9.4%	6.4%	25.5	8.7	6	-5.5
No top-3 finish in its last 5. 4th last time, beaten 2.5 lengths, 12 days ago. 0 wins from 14 at 1800m. 0 wins from 10 on this course. 1 win from 23 on Good. 0 wins from 14 at this class.
5	YOUNG FIGHTER L Ferraris · C Fownes · draw 7 · 131lb · rtg 36	8.6%	3.9%	6.1%	11.6	21.0	10	+4.7
No top-3 finish in its last 5. 7th last time, beaten 3.2 lengths, 12 days ago. 0 wins from 1 at 1800m. 0 wins from 4 on this course. 0 wins from 1 on Good.
3	CAN'T GO WONG K C Leung · F C Lor · draw 4 · 133lb · rtg 38	5.1%	3.9%	4.7%	19.5	21.0	9	+1.2
Placed top 3 in 2 of its last 5, without winning. 8th last time, beaten 4.8 lengths, 12 days ago. 1 win from 20 at 1800m. 0 wins from 10 on this course. 2 wins from 37 on Good.
7	FIGHTING MACHINE P N Wong (-7) · A S Cruz · draw 10 · 128lb · rtg 33	1.2%	4.1%	2.4%	81.1	20.0	8	-2.9
No top-3 finish in its last 5. 14th last time, beaten 8.8 lengths, 43 days ago. Up 200m in trip, 0 wins from 1 at 1800m. 0 wins from 4 on this course. 2 wins from 27 on Good. Jockey and trainer have won 3 of 19 together.
9	CIRCUIT DUFFY M L Yeung · W Y So · draw 1 · 125lb · rtg 30	2.2%	1.6%	2.0%	45.1	51.0	11	+0.6
No top-3 finish in its last 5. 8th last time, beaten 5.8 lengths, 26 days ago. First run at 1800m. 0 wins from 3 on this course. 1 win from 12 on Good.
12	SPECIAL HEDGE H T Mo (-2) · C W Chang · draw 13 · 123lb · rtg 28	0.6%	5.8%	1.9%	172.9	14.0	7	-5.3
No top-3 finish in its last 5. 6th last time, beaten 3.5 lengths, 18 days ago. Up 200m in trip, 2 wins from 13 at 1800m. 1 win from 10 on this course. 2 wins from 24 on Good. 1 win from 6 at this class.
11	SMART CITY M Chadwick · P F Yiu · draw 6 · 123lb · rtg 28	2.1%	1.5%	1.9%	46.8	53.0	12	+0.6
No top-3 finish in its last 5. 10th last time, beaten 12.5 lengths, 15 days ago. Up 400m in trip, 0 wins from 5 at 1800m. 0 wins from 5 on this course. 0 wins from 21 on Good. 0 wins from 5 at this class.
10	YOUNG STRIKER J Orman · B Crawford · draw 12 · 124lb · rtg 29	1.7%	1.5%	1.7%	59.5	54.0	13	+0.2
No top-3 finish in its last 5. 8th last time, beaten 7.0 lengths, returning from 107 days off. Up 600m in trip, first run at 1800m. 0 wins from 6 on Good. 0 wins from 3 at this class. Carries 5lb less than last time.

ratings-v3.1 (C005-RS model: C005 + running style, live since 30 Sep 2026). E/W top 3 = the model’s three highest-rated runners. Past performance does not predict future results. 18+ | Gamble responsibly. Terms · Glossary · 𝕏 @HKRacingPRO